Chasing A Flush Online
Posted in Poker on 11/21/2013 04:21 am by Nolan
Chasing a flush on the internet – Sometimes the numbers just do not add up!
There is an age old debate in poker – must you chase a flush? First of all we must define what we imply here by "chasing a flush on-line."
Chasing anything in Hold em poker will be the practice of wagering to stay in a hands in the hope that you just will make a better hand, even although you might have absolutely nothing at the time. So chasing a flush means gambling that you will acquire the card or card that you simply have to total your flush hand within the turn or river. You cannot chase a flush before the flop because at that time you only have two cards so the flush isn’t on.
So let’s say you happen to be betting one of the big poker sites online, you have been dealt the Ace and 9 of spades and you’ve paid to see the flop.
The flop is twos seven spades Kd and one of your competitors comes out gambling strongly with a fair sized increase, what do you do?
Initial of all ask your self what sort of hands you happen to be up against. The possibilities are triples, an additional flush draw, a pair of Kings or a complete bluff, so as it stands you happen to be only winning against the bluff with your Ace. About the other palm if you hit a spade in the last 2 cards you might have the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or 4 of a kind.
Within the face of it you could possibly assume that statistically you’ve about a fifty – fifty possibility of hitting your spade, after all there’s two cards to arrive and 4 suits so there must be about a half possibility, proper?
Wrong!
You already have 2 of the spades in your hands and there is another 2 showing within the table, so you know 5 cards and four of them are spades. That suggests you have nine spades left available out of the forty seven cards you have not seen, which is only a 42 per cent probability of catching your flush.
If you do wager to the turn and don’t produce your flush, what do you do then? You may have possibly now turn out to be pot-committed, you might have put so much into the pot that you simply may as effectively wager again around the river unless there’s a big raise or all-in towards you, except now your odds of creating the flush have dropped dramatically to only twenty one %.
Except what of that other factor, the mysterious internet poker syndrome? What I mean by that is while you statistically have a 42 per cent opportunity of generating a flush, is that what in fact occurs in reality? In the event you bet the same palm in the identical online poker table one hundred instances would you have a flush forty two times? From my personal understanding I doubt it. Flushes seem to arrive around a whole lot much less often than forty two out of 100 instances!
That’s just my own opinion and I’m certain the poker internet sites would tell you a different story, but the way I see it is forty two % could be the extremely Best you happen to be ever going to get and you might properly have a lot less likelihood than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush on the internet is a very risky technique that sucks you in and over commits you, with out giving you sufficient of a possibility of pulling out the winning hand.